Overview
- US payrolls surprised to the upside on Sept. 4 with about 162,000 jobs added, which quickly lifted market-implied odds of a Fed hike in mid-September to roughly the high‑50s percent.
- Over the weekend, US strikes on Iranian tankers and retaliatory IRGC actions near the Strait of Hormuz sent Brent toward $96–97 a barrel, adding a clear supply-driven inflation risk through higher diesel and transport costs.
- Global government bond yields moved higher toward multi‑year levels as investors priced the combined growth and energy shocks into higher interest-rate expectations.
- Indian markets opened the week lower and more volatile because higher oil and yields worsen the import bill, foreign portfolio investor outflows have increased, and a heavy IPO pipeline is drawing domestic liquidity from secondary trading.
- All eyes now turn to this week’s US August CPI reading, which is the most likely trigger for whether the Federal Reserve raises rates in September and for the near‑term path of stocks, bonds and the dollar.