Overview

• Citi’s twice‑monthly survey keeps the 2025 GDP consensus at 0.5% for a second straight period, below the 1.0% projected by the IMF and the federal budget framework.
• None of the 38 analysts surveyed expects 1.0% growth; 36 forecast between 0.1% and 0.8% while two see a 0.1% contraction.
• Citi chief economist Julio Ruiz says hitting 1.0% would require roughly 1.4% quarterly gains in both Q3 and Q4, versus Citi’s ~0.1% expectation.
• The 2026 consensus slips to 1.3%, remaining under the government’s 2.3% assumption and the IMF’s 1.5% forecast.
• Analysts expect headline inflation near 3.99% in 2025 and anticipate two more 25 bp cuts by Banxico to 7.0% at year‑end, with 6.50% projected by end‑2026.