Overview
- Futures pricing shows a near 90% probability of a 25 basis-point reduction on December 10, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.
- Labor signals are mixed, with ADP reporting about 32,000 private-sector job losses in November while initial jobless claims fell to a more-than-three-year low.
- The PCE inflation print due today is viewed as the decisive input for the Fed’s messaging and the expected easing path in 2026.
- Benchmark U.S. 10-year yields hover near 4.11% as global equities mostly edge higher and the S&P 500 trades just below its record.
- Bitcoin is steady near $93,000 after a swift rebound, while bond investors highlight political risk tied to reports of Kevin Hassett as a potential Fed chair.