Overview

• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said rates are too constrictive and called for cuts totaling 150 to 175 basis points, including a possible 50-basis-point reduction at the September Fed meeting.
• Federal funds futures now assign a 100% probability to a 25-basis-point cut on September 17, pricing in about 63 basis points of easing by year-end and 133 basis points by the end of 2026.
• The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 reached record highs as yields on 2-year and 10-year Treasuries each fell by roughly four basis points and the dollar index dropped by 0.35%.
• Gold and silver prices rose alongside inflows into related ETFs as a weaker dollar and expectations of upcoming Fed easing bolstered safe-haven demand.
• New U.S. tariffs on semiconductor imports, an extended China tariff truce and doubled levies on India have added fresh policy risk to market dynamics.