Overview

• U.S. stock futures were mixed ahead of the PCE inflation release, a key report that could reset rate-cut expectations.
• The CME FedWatch tool now puts the probability of an October cut at 87.8%, down from 91.1% the previous day.
• Initial jobless claims fell to 218,000 and second-quarter GDP was revised up to 3.8% annualized, underscoring economic resilience.
• President Donald Trump announced sweeping import duties, including 100% tariffs on branded pharmaceuticals and sizable levies on trucks, cabinetry, and furniture, adding upside risk to inflation.
• Investors are listening for guidance from Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin and Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman, while corporate headlines such as Intel’s outreach to Apple and TSMC continue to sway sentiment.