Markets Brace for U.S. Jobs Data as Fed and Copom Decisions Near, Bolsonaro Moves Add Risk

Overview

• Central-bank meetings begin in the U.S. and Brazil with decisions due Wednesday, with investors largely pricing a 25 bp Fed cut and an unchanged 15% Selic.
• JOLTS vacancies and the ADP private-payrolls reports are in focus as final inputs to Fed deliberations and broader market positioning.
• Brazil’s Flávio Bolsonaro declared his pre-candidacy irreversible and courted Centrão leaders, drawing support from Tarcísio de Freitas but securing no formal endorsements.
• Local Brazilian assets recovered modestly after last week’s drop while the dollar and futures rates eased, signaling a persistent electoral risk premium in prices.
• Brazil’s central bank chief Gabriel Galípolo has stressed a conservative stance that keeps rates elevated, as U.S. tech sentiment benefits from authorization for Nvidia to sell AI chips to China.