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2h ago

Markets Brace for U.S. Data Deluge as December Cut Odds Recede

Investors look for signals that could steer the Fed’s next move after weeks without official readings.

Four thousand U.S. dollars are counted out by a banker counting currency at a bank in Westminster, Colorado November 3, 2009. REUTERS/Rick Wilking/File Photo
A currency trader talks on the phone near a screen showing the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) at the foreign exchange dealing room of the Hana Bank headquarters in Seoul, South Korea, Monday, Nov. 17, 2025. (AP Photo/Ahn Young-joon)
Currency traders pass by a screen showing the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI), left, and the foreign exchange rate between U.S. dollar and South Korean won at the foreign exchange dealing room of the Hana Bank headquarters in Seoul, South Korea, Monday, Nov. 17, 2025. (AP Photo/Ahn Young-joon)
A currency trader exchanges a conversation with his colleagues near a screen showing the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI), top left, and the foreign exchange rate between U.S. dollar and South Korean won, top center, at the foreign exchange dealing room of the Hana Bank headquarters in Seoul, South Korea, Monday, Nov. 17, 2025. (AP Photo/Ahn Young-joon)

Overview

  • Asian shares were mostly lower as worries about stretched AI valuations grew and investors focused on Nvidia’s upcoming earnings.
  • Pricing now implies just over a 40% chance of a 25-basis-point Fed cut in December, down from more than 60% earlier this month.
  • The dollar held firm, the Swiss franc stayed near a one-month high, the yen hovered around 155 per dollar with intervention risk, and sterling softened ahead of the Nov. 26 UK budget.
  • Bitcoin fell below its end-2024 closing level, erasing its gains for the year after a sharp October peak.
  • Japan reported a 1.8% annualized GDP contraction in Q3, and Chinese advice against travel to Japan weighed on tourism and retail stocks in Tokyo.