Markets Brace for ‘Super Wednesday’ as Fed Seen Cutting, Brazil and Canada Poised to Hold

Overview

• The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut rates by 0.25 percentage point, putting the target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, with market odds above 90%.
• Internal divisions at the Fed have sharpened over another reduction, though New York Fed President John Williams signaled room for a cut “in the short term” in late November.
• Brazil’s Copom is expected to keep the Selic at 15% for a fourth straight meeting, with investors focused on any hints about the timing of eventual easing.
• The Bank of Canada is also anticipated to hold policy steady, even as traders begin to price some chance of renewed tightening ahead.
• Key Brazilian data arrive this week, with November consumer inflation due Wednesday and October retail sales on Thursday, potentially shaping the central bank’s messaging.