Overview

• The ABS will publish the July monthly CPI on Wednesday, with forecasts pointing to about 2.3% year over year after 1.9% in June, still below the midpoint of the RBA’s 2–3% target band.
• Minutes from the RBA’s August 11–12 meeting show the board expects to cut further but will decide the pace meeting by meeting based on incoming data.
• JP Morgan expects stronger food prices to lift the goods‑heavy July read, while holiday travel and accommodation likely recorded another outright decline.
• The ABS plans to upgrade the monthly CPI by November to broaden coverage, and the current indicator remains a less reliable guide than the quarterly series the RBA prioritizes.
• Market pricing reflects low odds of a September cut, and Seek reports advertised salary growth slowed to a four‑year low in July, suggesting easing labor‑market tightness.