Markets Brace for Dec. 10 ‘Super Wednesday’ as Fed Seen Cutting and Brazil, Canada Likely Holding

Overview

• Fresh Focus survey data show Brazil’s 2025 inflation forecast down to 4.40% and GDP growth up to 2.25%, with the median Selic projection for end‑2026 nudged to 12.25%.
• Traders assign better than 90% odds to a 25‑basis‑point US rate cut, following public signals in late November despite limited recent data after a government shutdown.
• Brazil’s Copom is widely expected to keep the Selic at 15% this week, with markets concentrating on guidance about when an easing cycle could begin.
• The Bank of Canada is scheduled to decide on rates the same day, with expectations centered on no change.
• Brazilian interest‑rate futures fell sharply early Monday, partially reversing Friday’s sell‑off tied to political headlines involving Flávio Bolsonaro.