Overview

• The Bureau of Economic Analysis releases August PCE at 8:30 a.m. ET, with forecasts near 2.7%–2.8% year over year for headline and 2.9%–3.0% for core, and a 0.2% monthly core gain expected.
• Futures pricing still implies roughly an 88% chance of another 25 bp cut in October, though some economists, including Oxford Economics, see a higher likelihood of a delay to December.
• Stronger data have tempered easing bets, with Q2 GDP revised up to a 3.8% annualized pace and initial jobless claims falling to 218,000, pushing Treasury yields near 4.18% on the 10‑year.
• President Trump’s newly announced tariffs—such as 100% duties on branded drugs and higher levies on trucks, cabinets, and furniture—have injected fresh inflation uncertainty, pressuring some retail and home goods shares.
• U.S. equity futures were mixed ahead of the release as investors weighed rich valuations and awaited remarks from Fed officials Tom Barkin and Michelle Bowman for any policy cues.