Overview

• Futures point to a near‑certain quarter‑point move at the Sept. 17 Fed meeting, with roughly 88% odds on 25 basis points and a smaller share on a half‑point cut.
• JPMorgan cautions a 25 bp decision could be a “sell the news” event, citing stretched positioning, a weaker buyback bid, and fading retail participation.
• Ed Yardeni warns easier policy risks a speculative melt‑up that fails to fix labor shortages linked to President Donald Trump’s immigration crackdown and an aging workforce.
• Citi’s Stuart Kaiser labels August’s weak payrolls a negative growth signal that could outweigh any short‑term lift from rate cuts for equities.
• Apollo’s Torsten Sløk highlights job losses in tariff‑exposed industries such as manufacturing, construction, retail, and transportation, while Thursday’s CPI is expected to show firm core inflation that could limit how fast the Fed eases.