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Markets Adapt to Trump’s On-Off Tariffs While Banks Hold Back on Deals

Investors are banking on Trump’s pattern of backing down to temper market fears.

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A trader works on the trading floor at The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 18, 2024. REUTERS/Andrew Kelly/File Photo
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U.S. President Donald Trump holds a chart next to U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick as Trump delivers remarks on tariffs in the Rose Garden at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., April 2, 2025. REUTERS/Carlos Barria/ File Photo

Overview

  • Market volatility has eased as investors embrace the TACO theory that Trump often retreats from tariff threats.
  • The Trump administration has modified or withdrawn more than 50 tariffs since April, reinforcing its unpredictable negotiating style.
  • Banks have postponed merger and acquisition plans due to concerns over sudden tariff shifts and uncertain policy outcomes.
  • Volatility in Treasury yields continues to pressure bank interest margins and raise questions about sector profitability.
  • US-China trade tensions persist over rare earths supply and retaliatory measures, sustaining long-term risks for global trade.