Overview
- Data center load accounted for $6.5 billion of the $16.4 billion from December’s PJM capacity auction, with about $6.2 billion tied to facilities not yet built that could start by the 2027/28 delivery year.
- Across the last three capacity auctions, forecasts above existing data‑center demand contributed $21.3 billion, or 45%, of cleared capacity costs.
- The market monitor identifies data‑center growth as the primary driver of tight supply, high prices, and a 6,516.6‑MW shortfall versus PJM’s reliability target in the most recent auction.
- The report warns that extreme uncertainty around prospective large loads calls into question the meaning of auction results based on such forecasts.
- PJM plans a new load forecast this month that could be lower after stricter vetting, its board is expected to advance data‑center interconnection reforms, and a temporary price cap/floor that shaved $13.1 billion from recent costs has expired and will not apply to the 2028/29 auction.