Overview
- Analysts surveyed by the Central Bank have trimmed 2026 growth to about 1.4–1.5% and now expect roughly a 1% GDP contraction in Q3, a result that would produce a technical recession if confirmed.
- Official monthly data showed a 2.9% fall in activity in July, and early September signals were mixed with small gains in construction and vehicle registrations but continuing weakness in industry.
- Real private-sector lending in pesos has fallen for months, with monthly contractions around 0.6–0.8% and consumer credit down for more than a year, leaving household demand subdued.
- Monetary indicators point to gradual remonetization: transactable money rose about 0.5% real monthly, time deposits expanded and central bank reserves increased by roughly $1.0 billion in a recent week.
- The government completed a major water and sewage concession with a $340.2 million bid and a pledged 2.9 trillion peso investment plan for 2027–2031, but concentrated projects and tight fiscal credibility may not generate broad spillovers.