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Mark Carney's Liberals Surge in Polls as Trade War Shapes Canadian Election

With a significant lead, Carney's focus on sovereignty and economic resilience resonates, while Poilievre's Conservatives struggle to regain ground.

Ontario's Treasury Board President Carolyn Mulroney listens as Premier Doug Ford speaks to the media at the Ontario Legislature, in Toronto, on Wednesday December 11, 2024.
Workers pose with Liberal leader Mark Carney as he makes a campaign stop at an auto parts factory, Friday, April 4, 2025 in Vaughan. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld
Pierre Poilievre at a recent campaign event.
Supporters of Liberal Leader Mark Carney wait outside of an event on Thursday, April 3, 2025 in Montreal. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld

Overview

  • Mark Carney's Liberal Party is projected to form a majority government, holding a decisive lead in national polls ahead of the April 28 election.
  • The U.S.-Canada trade war and Donald Trump's annexation rhetoric have shifted voter priorities, benefiting the Liberals while challenging the Conservatives.
  • Pierre Poilievre has faced criticism for failing to pivot his campaign to address concerns about U.S. trade tensions, alienating moderate voters.
  • Quebec has emerged as a stronghold for the Liberals, with voters prioritizing economic sovereignty and viewing Carney as better equipped to manage U.S. relations.
  • Significant gender and regional divides in support persist, with women and urban voters favoring the Liberals, while Poilievre retains support in the Prairies.