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Mark Carney’s Liberals Projected to Form Minority Government After 2025 Federal Election

Despite securing the largest vote share since 1988, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre loses his seat as Liberals claim key victories in pivotal ridings.

 Bruce MacKinnon’s cartoon for April 29, 2025.
Construction crews work on a multi-unit home near 141 Street and 110A Avenue, in Edmonton Wednesday Jan. 8, 2025.
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Cheryll Watson, chairwoman of the Downtown Revitalization Coalition, poses for a photo beside an EPark machine, in downtown Edmonton on Thursday, April 24, 2025. The city has started removing all physical EPark machines and is moving to a mobile app payment system.

Overview

  • Mark Carney's Liberal Party is projected to lead a minority government, securing 43.5% of the vote nationally.
  • Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre lost his seat, despite his party achieving its highest vote share in nearly four decades at 41.4%.
  • Sean Fraser narrowly retained his Central Nova seat for a fourth term, overcoming a late deficit to win by approximately 400 votes.
  • Corey Hogan captured Calgary Confederation, becoming Calgary's lone Liberal MP-elect after defeating Conservative Jeremy Nixon by 1,248 votes.
  • Political analysts predict the Liberal minority government is unlikely to last a full term, with speculation of another election within a year.