Overview

• Marine Le Pen has been sentenced to four years in prison (two suspended), a €100,000 fine, and five years of ineligibility, immediately barring her from running in the 2027 presidential election.
• A poll reveals that 49% of French citizens support her candidacy despite her conviction, while 51% oppose it, reflecting deep national polarization.
• Only 37% of respondents believe Le Pen will ultimately be able to run, a significant drop in public confidence compared to the previous month.
• Le Pen has vowed to appeal the ruling, with a trial scheduled for 2026, though the immediate execution of her ineligibility complicates her political future.
• Jordan Bardella, president of the Rassemblement National, is seen as a potential alternative candidate should Le Pen remain barred from the race.