Overview

• Retail sales in March increased by 1.4%, driven by preemptive consumer purchases ahead of impending tariffs, according to U.S. Census Bureau data.
• Economists note that the spending spike is temporary and could obscure underlying economic vulnerabilities, complicating Federal Reserve policy decisions.
• President Trump’s sweeping tariffs include 25% duties on aluminum, steel, and cars, as well as a 145% tariff on Chinese imports, with further measures under consideration.
• The administration announced a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs to encourage trade negotiations, though tariffs on Chinese goods remain in effect.
• Experts warn that the tariff regime could lead to higher inflation and unemployment, raising the risk of stagflation and economic stagnation.