Overview
- Economists expect Friday's Consumer Price Index to show about a 0.9% to 1.0% monthly rise, one of the sharpest increases since 1981 and the biggest since June 2022.
- Forecasts point to roughly 3.1% to 3.3% inflation over the past year, the highest since April 2024, with headline prices jumping far more than core readings that exclude food and energy.
- The war involving Iran has choked off traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, lifting oil costs and pushing gasoline and diesel more than $1 a gallon higher over five weeks.
- Higher fuel costs are starting to filter into everyday expenses, with pressure showing up in cars, air travel, and food, including pricier used cars and new airline bag fees to offset fuel.
- Analysts say pricier energy squeezes household budgets and makes Fed rate cuts less likely in the near term, and Glenmede estimates the shock could add about 0.8 percentage point to inflation over the next year.