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March Import Surge Sets Record, Dragging Q1 GDP Into Likely Contraction

U.S. businesses rushed to stockpile goods ahead of April tariffs, inflating the trade deficit and skewing economic data, though underlying demand remains strong.

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Analysts expect US GDP figures to show a marked slowdown in growth for the first quarter of the year, spurred by rising imports ahead of the introduction of sweeping tariffs by President Donald Trump
OAKLAND, CALIFORNIA - APRIL 18: Trucks line up to pick up shipping containers from a ship at the Port of Oakland on April 18, 2025 in Oakland, California. The commercial transportation industry is bracing for a sudden drop in work as fallout from U.S. President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs continues. American importers are being notified of a surge in canceled sailings by freight ships out of China after the Trump administration announced new fees on Chinese ships. (Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)
Infographic showing the US trade balance with selected economies

Overview

  • March U.S. imports reached a record $342.7 billion, a 5% increase from February, driven by businesses front-loading goods to avoid upcoming tariffs.
  • The trade deficit widened to $162 billion, the largest on record, as exports grew modestly by 1.2% compared to the import surge.
  • Economic models from Bank of America and the Atlanta Fed now project Q1 GDP to contract between -1.2% and -2.7%, largely due to the import spike's subtraction from net exports.
  • Inventory data suggests businesses are restocking, with wholesale inventories up 0.5% in March, signaling continued confidence in consumer demand.
  • Pending export revisions, impacted by Canadian customs delays, are expected to adjust the trade deficit figures in June, potentially softening the current economic outlook.