Overview

• Marquez leads by 182 points after San Marino and must leave Japan at plus‑185, meaning he needs to gain three points over Alex across the Motegi weekend.
• The title cannot be clinched in Saturday’s sprint, though the sprint outcome will determine what Marquez must do in Sunday’s grand prix.
• A victory in both the sprint and the grand prix is the only result pair that secures the championship irrespective of Alex Marquez’s finishes.
• If the brothers split the Motegi wins, the coronation would be deferred to the next round at Mandalika.
• Alex Marquez is the sole remaining challenger after Pecco Bagnaia’s elimination, and any season‑ending points tie would go to Marc on grand prix wins.