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Mar Vista Sees Meta Holding Mid-Teens Growth as 2026 Spending Surge Looms

The firm warns a 2026 spending surge will pressure near-term earnings.

Overview

  • Mar Vista’s latest letter says Meta continues to compound at a 13–15% growth rate driven by higher ad prices and AI-fueled engagement.
  • The firm highlights a projected material step-up in 2026 capital and operating expenditures tied to infrastructure buildout and the Meta Superintelligence effort.
  • Management’s heavier investment is expected to dent EPS in the short term, yet Mar Vista views it as a catalyst for future topline and free cash flow growth.
  • Revenue momentum reflects a roughly 10% increase in average ad prices and broader adoption of AI recommendations and advertiser tools, though new AI products remain largely unproven.
  • Meta reported Q3 2025 revenue of $51.2 billion, up 26% year over year, with shares closing at $620.25 on January 16, 2026 for a $1.56 trillion market cap as hedge fund holders rose to 273 portfolios.