Overview
- Government data show factories shed about 68,000–72,000 jobs since April, including an 8,000 decline in December 2025.
- ISM’s manufacturing index fell to 47.9 in December for a tenth straight month of contraction, with survey responses citing tariffs and weak demand.
- The White House points to rising manufacturing productivity, higher hourly pay for factory workers, major investment announcements, and roughly $30 billion per month in tariff revenue.
- Federal Reserve surveys and the Beige Book report manufacturers delaying hiring and capital spending, while frequent tariff code changes add complexity and costs estimated at $39–$71 billion annually.
- A Supreme Court decision on the administration’s emergency tariff authority is expected soon, heightening policy and revenue uncertainty as firms like Westlake announce layoffs and idled lines.