Overview
- Fielded Oct. 22–26, the survey finds Stefanik at 43% and Hochul at 42% with the race within a roughly three-point margin of error.
- Reports conflict on the poll’s size, with The Hill citing 300 likely voters and the New York Post describing 600, fueling questions about reliability.
- The reported crosstabs show Stefanik ahead among independents (46%–33%) and on Long Island (54%–37%), while Hochul leads in the Hudson Valley (45%–36%).
- Stefanik’s campaign hailed the finding as evidence voters want new leadership, as Hochul’s team dismissed it as an untrustworthy product of a right-leaning outfit.
- The result contrasts with Siena polling from late summer that showed Hochul ahead by double digits, as Stefanik has signaled a formal announcement after the Nov. 4 election.