Overview
- The Oct. 22–26 Manhattan Institute poll puts Elise Stefanik at 43% and Gov. Kathy Hochul at 42% among registered voters statewide, with 9% for someone else and 7% undecided.
- The result contrasts with prior public polling, including Siena surveys in August and September that had Hochul up double digits.
- In New York City, the same poll shows Zohran Mamdani leading the mayoral field with 43% to Andrew Cuomo’s 28% and Curtis Sliwa’s 19%.
- Methodology is under scrutiny, as the conservative think tank surveyed 600 likely NYC voters and 300 statewide voters and reported a ±3.3-point statewide margin of error, with outside pollsters questioning its weighting.
- Stefanik’s team touted the finding and Hochul’s campaign dismissed it, while Stefanik has not formally declared a gubernatorial run.