Overview

• An AARP New York–Gotham poll of 1,376 likely voters puts Mamdani at 41.8%, ahead of Cuomo at 23.4%, Sliwa at 16.5% and Adams at 8.8%, with Mamdani leading in every dropout scenario and in head-to-head tests.
• Prediction markets give Mamdani roughly an 80%+ chance of victory, including 81% on Interactive Brokers and about 84% on PredictIt and Polymarket.
• ADL CEO Jonathan Greenblatt faulted Mamdani for not engaging synagogues and for refusing to condemn the slogan “globalize the intifada,” but reporting documented multiple synagogue appearances and meetings, and Mamdani says he will discourage the phrase.
• Polling also highlights vulnerabilities, with rising unfavorable ratings and public-safety concerns even as his affordability agenda—rent freezes, large-scale rent‑stabilized construction, higher taxes on top earners and city‑owned groceries—drives the debate.
• Republicans are nationalizing his candidacy, with President Trump calling him a communist, while GOP nominee Curtis Sliwa urges Trump to stay neutral and Cuomo and Adams continue independent campaigns.