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7h ago

Mamdani Still Front-Runner in Three-Way NYC Race as New Poll Narrows Hypothetical Two-Way

A new AARP/Gotham survey shows the race tightening to within the margin only if Curtis Sliwa exits, with undecided voters skewing older.

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Former Governor Andrew Cuomo and Democratic Assemblymember Zohran Mamdani speak before a debate on October 16, 2025 in New York City.
From left, independent candidate former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa and Democratic candidate Zohran Mamdani participate in a mayoral debate, Thursday, Oct. 16, 2025, in New York. (AP Photo/Angelina Katsanis, Pool)

Overview

  • The AARP/Gotham poll finds Mamdani at 43.2%, Cuomo at 28.9%, and Sliwa at 19.4% in the current three-way field, but a head-to-head narrows to 44.6% for Mamdani versus 40.7% for Cuomo.
  • Polling and betting markets reinforce Mamdani’s status as the favorite, with recent Fox and Quinnipiac surveys showing double-digit leads and Polymarket and Kalshi odds placing his chances above 90%.
  • Cuomo is pressing the 'spoiler' argument against Sliwa and urging consolidation, while Sliwa rejects calls to drop out and vows to keep campaigning.
  • A photo of Mamdani with Imam Siraj Wahhaj drew criticism from Cuomo and Sliwa; Mamdani countered that past mayors engaged the same imam and framed the backlash as selective.
  • Key dates approach with the second debate on Oct. 22, early voting from Oct. 25 to Nov. 2, and Election Day on Nov. 4, as older voters comprise most of the undecided bloc.