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Mamdani Leads in New NYC Polls as Variance and Three-Way Dynamics Define Final Stretch

New polling varies widely, underscoring how Sliwa’s presence plus late undecided voters could still shift the outcome.

Overview

  • Quinnipiac’s Oct. 23–27 survey shows Zohran Mamdani at 43%, Andrew Cuomo at 33% and Curtis Sliwa at 14%, with the lead narrowing to 10 points as undecided responses tick up.
  • Emerson finds a far larger gap at 50%–25%–21%, while Marist puts the race at 48%–32%–16%, highlighting significant spread across late polls despite consistent Mamdani advantages.
  • Quinnipiac’s Jewish voter subsample shows Cuomo consolidating that bloc, leading 60% to 16% over Mamdani, even as Mamdani retains strong support among younger voters citywide.
  • Multiple surveys indicate Sliwa voters largely prefer Cuomo as a second choice; Marist’s hypothetical two-way puts Mamdani at 51% and Cuomo at 44%, and Sliwa says he will stay in the race.
  • The final days feature Islamophobic attacks and AI-generated negative ads, including a Cuomo campaign video that was posted and deleted, as endorsements and late spending line up against Mamdani.