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Mamdani Leads in Final Ranked-Choice Poll as Early Voting Surges

A new poll shows Mamdani edging out Cuomo in the final ranked-choice round under rules that may delay results past Election Day.

File photo of Zohran Mamdani
New York City mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani attends a campaign rally, calling for the full enforcement of the city's Sanctuary City laws, on June 21, 2025, in Diversity Square in the Jackson Heights neighborhood of the borough of Queens, New York City.
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Overview

  • An Emerson College/PIX11/The Hill survey on June 23 puts Zohran Mamdani at 51.8% and Andrew Cuomo at 48.2% in the decisive round of simulated ranked-choice voting.
  • The New York City Board of Elections recorded 384,338 early voting check-ins from June 14 to 22, more than double the 191,197 reported in the 2021 primaries.
  • Analysts find about 4.8% of ranked-choice ballots are mismarked and roughly 10% of those errors result in rejected votes during tabulation.
  • Mamdani has been endorsed by progressive figures including Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Bernie Sanders and has campaigned on rent freezes, fare-free buses and other affordability measures.
  • Officials warn that a heatwave expected to exceed 100°F on Election Day could dampen turnout and that the ranked-choice counting process may postpone the final result by several days.