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8h ago

Mamdani Leads, but New Poll and Imam Photo Test His Edge in Three-Way NYC Mayor’s Race

A new AARP/Gotham poll points to a near tie with Andrew Cuomo in a head-to-head contingent on Curtis Sliwa’s withdrawal.

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Former Governor Andrew Cuomo and Democratic Assemblymember Zohran Mamdani speak before a debate on October 16, 2025 in New York City.
From left, independent candidate former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa and Democratic candidate Zohran Mamdani participate in a mayoral debate, Thursday, Oct. 16, 2025, in New York. (AP Photo/Angelina Katsanis, Pool)

Overview

  • The AARP/Gotham survey of 1,040 likely voters shows Mamdani at 43.2%, Cuomo at 28.9% and Sliwa at 19.4% in the three-way race, with a hypothetical Mamdani–Cuomo matchup tightening to 44.6%–40.7% within the poll’s ±4 point margin of error.
  • Pollsters highlight that nearly 8 in 10 undecided voters are age 50 or older, a high-turnout bloc that could prove decisive if the field narrows.
  • Sliwa rejects calls to drop out as Cuomo labels him a spoiler, while Newsday reports WABC owner John Catsimatidis publicly urged Sliwa to exit to avoid splitting the anti-Mamdani vote.
  • A widely shared photo of Mamdani with Imam Siraj Wahhaj drew fresh attacks from Cuomo and Sliwa; Mamdani defended the meeting by noting prior interactions between the imam and past NYC mayors.
  • Betting markets still show Mamdani as a heavy favorite, with Polymarket near 94% and Kalshi around 91%, as the second debate is set for Oct. 22 and early voting begins Oct. 25.