Overview
- Most surveys still show Zohran Mamdani ahead by double digits, with a RealClear Polling average of about 16.5 points, even as several late polls, including AtlasIntel (41%-34%-24%), indicate a narrower race.
- Early voting has set records and is skewing older, with voters 60+ comprising roughly 40% of nearly 400,000 early ballots tallied in city data analyses.
- Michael Bloomberg formally endorsed Andrew Cuomo and, according to public filings, steered millions more into super PACs opposing Mamdani and backing Cuomo, including $3.5 million to an anti-Mamdani PAC and $1.5 million to a pro-Cuomo PAC this week.
- Republican Curtis Sliwa remains in the race despite pressure to exit, raising the prospect of vote splitting; a Marist poll shows Mamdani leads both the three-way contest and a hypothetical head-to-head with Cuomo.
- Campaigns are sharpening demographic plays in the final stretch, with Mamdani courting seniors and bolstering youth and communities of color, Cuomo appealing to conservatives and older voters, and President Trump warning publicly that a Mamdani win could imperil federal funds.