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Mamdani Holds 19-Point Lead as Campaign Intensifies

Survey data underpinning his lead carry a 6.7% margin of error that tempers confidence in its durability.

Overview

  • A Siena College poll conducted August 4–7 shows Mamdani with 44% support and a 19-point advantage, but its 39% New York City subsample carried a 6.7% margin of error that grows for smaller groups.
  • Mamdani’s “Five Boroughs Against Trump” tour reached Staten Island on August 13 as he positioned sanctuary policies and opposition to federal deportations at the forefront of his general-election strategy.
  • Rivalry with Andrew Cuomo turned more personal this week, with Cuomo launching a “#Rentgate” attack over Mamdani’s rent-stabilized lease and Mamdani countering with a video accusing Cuomo of undisclosed consulting clients.
  • Independent runs by Cuomo and Mayor Eric Adams keep the field divided, and this week former Gov. David Paterson announced his endorsement of Adams, further fracturing opposition to Mamdani.
  • Key Democratic leaders, including Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries, remain uncommitted to Mamdani even as reports emerge that Barack Obama called to offer him advice on governance.