Overview
- A single constituency poll by Survation shows Burnham narrowly ahead of Reform with Reform on about 40% and Restore Britain polling around 7%, a split that could hand the June 18 by‑election to Labour.
- Rupert Lowe’s breakaway Restore Britain has forced a bitter public feud with Nigel Farage’s Reform and claims it can siphon decisive right‑wing votes, with both sides trading recriminations online and on the doorstep.
- Reform’s candidate Robert Kenyon has been pressed this week over resurfaced social posts about women and foreign policy that Labour has amplified in targeted attacks.
- Campaign tactics have escalated with paid and AI‑generated ads used by Reform, Labour digital pushes for Burnham, and a dispute over Restore’s exclusion from a BBC Question Time Makerfield special.
- Local focus groups show voters feel angry and pessimistic and are planning tactical ‘hold‑nose’ votes, a dynamic that could make a small Restore share the decisive margin and shape national leadership stakes.