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Makerfield By‑Election Becomes Test for Andy Burnham’s Leadership Bid

A June 18 vote that could return the Greater Manchester mayor to Westminster would let him seek a Labour leadership contest if he can secure the required support from MPs.

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'As Sir Keir Starmer boards the planes for the G7 and upcoming Nato summits, foreign secretary might well be the one job in this government that he might actually relish,' says Anne McElvoy (Photo: Toby Shepheard/AFP)
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Andy Burnham is set Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham is set to run for the Labour leadership if he wins the Makerfield by-election (Photo: Anthony Devlin/Getty)

Overview

  • The Makerfield by‑election on June 18 is tightly contested, with several polls showing Andy Burnham narrowly ahead of Reform UK and the new Restore Britain party polling about 7–8 percent.
  • If Burnham wins the seat he plans to return to Westminster and his allies are preparing to seek the 81 Labour MP nominations needed to force a formal leadership contest.
  • A cluster of recent ministerial resignations has accelerated moves inside Labour to press for a quick challenge to Sir Keir Starmer if Burnham is elected.
  • Restore Britain’s presence complicates the race because it may split right‑of‑centre votes, and media reports alleging some Restore activists attended an extremist summit in Portugal have raised reputational concerns.
  • Makerfield is a long‑standing Labour constituency, so a Reform win would be a shock and a Burnham victory would not automatically change party leadership without the 81‑MP threshold and further internal manoeuvring.