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Major U.S. Banks Pass Fed Stress Test, Clearing Way for Buybacks and Dividends

The Fed is set to average stress test results over two years following this year’s exercise confirming banks’ capital strength.

An eagle tops the U.S. Federal Reserve building's facade in Washington, July 31, 2013. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst/File Photo
Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell speaks during a news conference at the Federal Reserve in Washington, Wednesday, June 18, 2025. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein)

Overview

  • Twenty-two large banks retained an average 11.6% common equity tier 1 ratio, more than double the 4.5% regulatory minimum.
  • The 2025 scenario assumed a 30% drop in commercial real estate values, a 33% decline in home prices and a rise in unemployment to 10%, producing over $550 billion in hypothetical losses.
  • Fed officials said banks can announce capital plans, including share repurchases and dividend payouts, as soon as next week.
  • This year’s test was less severe than in 2024, with smaller asset‐price declines and limited stress on private equity and private credit exposures.
  • The Fed plans to finalize reforms by year-end that will average outcomes across two years and publish its stress scenarios and models for public feedback.