Overview

• The study attributes about 18% of dengue incidence from 1995–2014 across 21 countries to higher temperatures, equal to more than 4.6 million extra infections annually.
• Modeling shows cases could rise 49–76% by 2050 under different emissions pathways, with incidence more than doubling in many cooler locations.
• Transmission peaks near roughly 27.8°C, shifting the greatest risk to cooler, densely populated regions such as parts of Mexico, Peru, and Brazil.
• The authors say their projections are conservative because regions with sparse or unavailable data, including India and much of Africa, were excluded.
• The researchers urge aggressive climate mitigation alongside adaptation through mosquito control, stronger health systems, and expanded use of dengue vaccines.