Overview
- Forecast agencies including the WMO, NOAA and ECMWF say an El Niño is now likely this summer, with the WMO’s June 2 bulletin giving about an 80% chance for June–August and over 90% chance it will persist into November.
- Ocean observations from late April to mid‑May show unusually warm surface and especially subsurface waters in the central‑eastern equatorial Pacific, including a strong Kelvin wave that signals an evolving El Niño event.
- Models and forecasters agree the event should be at least moderate and could become strong, but they differ on peak timing and how the atmosphere will respond because trade‑wind weakening remains uncertain.
- Experts and U.N. leaders are urging action now to protect crops, water supplies, health systems and vulnerable communities by boosting early‑warning systems and targeted preparedness measures.
- Beyond near‑term weather impacts, researchers warn that El Niño over a warmer baseline could amplify economic and humanitarian costs, with one study estimating very large long‑term global losses if interactions with climate change persist.