Overview
- Climate models from ECMWF and guidance from the World Meteorological Organization now point to El Niño conditions emerging between May and July with high odds of a strong peak later in 2026.
- Mexico’s weather agencies outline a phased development with about a 61% chance of onset in May–July, near 90% in August–October, and a likely peak window from November to January 2026–27.
- Peru’s ENFEN says the Niño Costero off its coast is likely to strengthen from weak to moderate starting in June, signaling rising local flood and fisheries risks.
- A strong El Niño usually damps Atlantic hurricane formation and boosts stronger storms in the eastern Pacific, and ECMWF’s May outlook still shows only a slight Atlantic dip at 13 named storms and 6 hurricanes.
- Researchers and civil agencies urge preparedness for heat, floods, fires and landslides, while a Conagua expert says Mexico could end 2026 without widespread drought if the rainy season follows current projections.