Major Crypto Exchanges Seek U.S. Approval to Offer Prediction Contracts
A federal-state split over whether event contracts are derivatives or gambling leaves U.S. rollouts uncertain.
Overview
- Reports on October 21 said Binance US has submitted an application to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to offer regulated event or prediction contracts in the United States.
- Blockchain.com confirmed on October 13 that it requested two CFTC approvals: a designated contract market license to run a regulated exchange and a futures commission merchant registration to clear and broker trades.
- Several other exchanges including Coinbase, Crypto.com, Gemini and Bullish are pursuing access through direct CFTC filings, partnerships with regulated venues, or separate prediction subsidiaries.
- State actions are already limiting access for some users as Michigan ordered Coinbase to stop offering event contracts in-state and a federal judge denied Coinbase a preliminary injunction in its challenge to that order.
- Retail interest has surged with combined Polymarket and Kalshi volumes rising from $17 billion in January to $72 billion in September, a trend that could boost revenue if federal approval clears legal uncertainty or push markets offshore if states prevail.