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Mainland Investors Drive 21% Hong Kong Stock Rally With Record H1 Inflows

Analysts forecast further narrowing of valuation gaps to bolster Hong Kong markets in the second half

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A screen reflecting on glass displays the Hang Seng stock index at the Central district in Hong Kong, China, April 7, 2025. REUTERS/Tyrone Siu

Overview

  • Southbound purchases via Stock Connect reached HK$731.2 billion in the first half of 2025, lifting mainland investors’ share of daily turnover to about 50 percent
  • Hang Seng Index gains of 21 percent in H1 outpaced China’s CSI 300 as domestic capital reallocated to offshore equities
  • The premium of onshore A-shares over Hong Kong H-shares tightened to under 30 percent, the lowest in five years, as arbitrage activity intensified
  • A re-rating of China’s technology sector and cheaper offshore valuations attracted both retail and institutional money into Hong Kong listings
  • Standard Chartered and UBS cite policy support and easing U.S. tariff tensions as drivers for continued H-share upside and tighter A/H valuation spreads