Overview
- U.S. stocks capped 2025 with broad gains, as the Dow rose 13%, the S&P 500 16%, and the Nasdaq Composite 20%.
- Early 2026 trading shows a shift in leadership, with the Magnificent 7 index up 0.5% versus a 1.8% rise for the S&P 500.
- In 2025 most of the Magnificent 7 lagged the S&P 500, and the group’s 25% gain was driven largely by Alphabet and Nvidia.
- Wall Street’s average view still points to roughly 10% S&P 500 upside in 2026, while Bloomberg Intelligence projects Magnificent 7 profit growth of about 18% versus 13% for the rest of the index.
- Concentration and valuations remain in focus, with the seven mega-caps near one-third of S&P 500 value, trading around 29 times next-12-month earnings compared with 22 times for the index, and CAPE readings near historic extremes.