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Maduro’s Capture Puts Venezuela’s Vast Oil Reserves in Play as OPEC Convenes

Analysts expect only a modest immediate price reaction given Venezuela’s reduced share of global supply.

Overview

  • President Donald Trump confirmed Nicolás Maduro’s arrest and said the United States will oversee a transition that invites major U.S. oil companies to invest in rebuilding Venezuela’s battered petroleum sector.
  • Venezuela holds about 303 billion barrels of proven reserves but currently pumps roughly 1.1–1.14 million barrels a day, mostly heavy, sour crude, after years of mismanagement, sanctions and underinvestment.
  • Futures trading was shut over the weekend and early market commentary points to limited near‑term price effects, with traders watching Sunday’s emergency OPEC/OPEC+ meeting for any stabilization moves.
  • Some reports indicate oil facilities were not damaged in the operation, yet restoring output would take years and major capital, and legal questions over control of assets such as CITGO remain unresolved.
  • Geopolitical repercussions are in focus as the U.S. signals a deeper role, China has been the main destination for Venezuelan crude, Russian interests could be pressured, and Venezuela’s internal leadership remains contested.