Overview
- An anonymous Polymarket user turned roughly $34,000 into more than $400,000 by wagering that Nicolás Maduro would be out of power, with many bets placed just hours before President Trump announced the raid that captured him.
- Polymarket paid the trader’s winnings but has refused some Venezuela “invasion” payouts, citing contract language that defines an invasion as operations intended to establish control.
- New York’s Gaming Commission sent Kalshi a cease-and-desist notice over sports markets, and Kalshi countersued, arguing the Commodity Futures Trading Commission—not states—regulates event-contract trading.
- Rep. Ritchie Torres introduced legislation to restrict government employees from trading on politically related event contracts, while Kalshi says it already bans insider trading on its regulated exchange.
- Use has surged to billions in weekly volume and tens of millions of monthly bets, yet blockchain-based anonymity and uncertain jurisdiction complicate any investigation into possible leaks or illicit trading.