Overview

• Opposition groups including RN, LFI, Greens, Communists and UDR plan to table a censure motion this week, with roughly 265 votes counted against the government versus the 289 needed.
• LIOT’s 23 deputies and 10 non‑aligned members could prove decisive, and a handful of Socialist votes would likely determine the outcome.
• Lecornu is expected to deliver his general policy declaration on October 14 or 15, with a pension concession under discussion after Macron floated a one‑year pause on the retirement‑age increase suggested by the CFDT.
• Securing passage of the 2026 budget before year‑end is the Élysée’s stated priority, and Macron views Lecornu as best placed to steer it through.
• Coalition prospects remain shaky as LR and UDI decline to join the cabinet and Horizons and MoDem hesitate, while analysts warn a dissolution becomes plausible if the standoff endures.