Overview

• Opposition parties from the left and the far right say they will vote to topple the minority government, making defeat in the confidence vote likely.
• Bayrou’s plan targets roughly €43.8–€44 billion in savings, including scrapping two public holidays and freezing most welfare spending, and he says only the overall savings effort is non‑negotiable.
• After a prime-time TV interview, Bayrou scheduled talks with party leaders from Sept. 1 to seek last‑ditch compromises on the 2026 budget.
• A loose ‘Bloquons tout’ campaign and the CGT union are backing a nationwide shutdown on Sept. 10, two days after the vote, raising the risk of disruptive protests.
• Market nerves flared after the finance minister floated, then walked back, an IMF bailout risk; if the government falls, Macron must choose a caretaker or new prime minister or dissolve the Assembly for fresh elections.