Overview
- US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick publicly linked a potential quick deal to a phone call from Prime Minister Narendra Modi, a claim opinion writers deem spurious as talks already faced substantive gaps.
- India had declared red lines on opening its farm market, even as USTR Jamieson Greer called New Delhi’s latest offer the most forward-leaning to date.
- Indian markets reflected the uncertainty, with the Sensex and Nifty down about 2.5% last week, foreign portfolio outflows exceeding $1.3 billion so far this month, and the rupee closing at 90.16 to the dollar on Friday.
- Tariff pressures remain elevated, including a 50% levy on Indian goods that incorporates a 25% penalty tied to Russian oil purchases, while a reported proposal seeks duties of at least 500% under a Sanctioning Russia Act.
- Commentary urges accelerated domestic reforms and alternative trade pacts, citing vulnerabilities such as reliance on the US for exports and software services, dependence on US tech and defense suppliers, and pharma exposure to Chinese APIs.