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Lunar Traffic Surge Fuels Collision-Risk Warnings, Spurs New Tracking Efforts

Clustering in a handful of stable lunar orbits is pushing avoidance manoeuvres toward routine practice.

Overview

  • Over the past two years, twelve Moon missions were attempted, with nearly half launched by private companies.
  • Experts say risk rises because most spacecraft share a limited set of stable lunar orbits and because Earth-based sensors struggle at cislunar distances and against lunar glare.
  • A March 2025 study estimates that with 50 satellites in lunar orbit, each could require about four avoidance manoeuvres per year.
  • ISRO reports Chandrayaan‑2 executed three adjustments in four years, illustrating real-world congestion management.
  • Agencies are responding as NASA runs a lunar traffic‑monitoring program, AFRL targets a 2027 Oracle sensor at a Lagrange point, and COPUOS forms a coordination team ahead of NASA’s planned crewed mission in early 2026.