Overview

• Front‑month CME lumber futures are trading near $525 per thousand board feet, down roughly a quarter from early August’s three‑year high and near a one‑year low.
• Tariff announcements and reversals spurred buyers to stockpile earlier this year, inflating prices before a subsequent oversupply pressured the market.
• Homebuilding indicators have softened, with July residential permits slipping to about 1.4 million on a seasonally adjusted annual basis and construction spending down 3.4% from a May 2024 peak.
• Producers are reining in output to clear inventories, including Interfor’s plan to cut about 145 million board feet this year and Domtar’s temporary Quebec sawmill shutdown in October.
• The policy backdrop remains unsettled, with U.S. Commerce finalizing higher anti‑dumping and countervailing duties on Canadian lumber in August and a Section 232 review due to report by November 26.