Overview
- Multiple national surveys conducted in mid‑September show a clear decline in public support for President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, with Ipsos‑Ipec reporting 53% disapproval and 42% approval and Futura/100% Cidades finding roughly 53% disapproval and 44% approval.
- Both headline polls interviewed about 2,000 voters and have margins of error near two percentage points, so the results point to a consistent negative trend even though many vote simulations remain statistically tight.
- Futura/100% Cidades’ voting simulation put Lula narrowly ahead in a first round (38.3% to 37.7% for Flávio Bolsonaro) while showing Bolsonaro leading 48.1% to 43.7% in a second‑round scenario, a gap that falls within the poll’s margin of error.
- Coverage and tracking products such as the Lulômetro link the worsening ratings to recent political controversies, including developments in the 'Master' case involving STF-related disclosures and reports about Fábio Luís 'Lulinha', which critics say have damaged Lula’s image.
- Regional polls show variation in voter attitudes—Datafolha finds strong Lula leads and positive ratings in Piauí—highlighting that national shifts in approval may affect some states more than others and that the race remains fluid going into the first round.